Islamist US proxies have captured Damascus. Bashar’s government has fallen. Is it joever for the Axis of Resistence?

  • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.ml
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    3 days ago

    This was an interesting take on the whole thing, and I think it’s quite plausible. He basically argues that the west might be intentionally drawn into a trap in Syria. Incidentally, there is a RAND paper that warns against this exact scenario. It basically argues that putting Syria under stress is beneficial to the US, but there is a risk of over commitment.

    Russia and Iran aren’t stupid, and they likely saw that the west was going to flare up the conflict in Syria again. One option was to pour resources into Syria to fight off the jihadists. This would be long and protracted quagmire. The other options was simply to withdraw and let them take it. These groups all hate each other, and they’re not a cohesive fighting force. They’re already starting to fight each other just days after taking over, and it’s only going to get worse.

    The west wants to have a compliant regime in Syria and that requires using coercive methods that will inevitably breed resentment from these groups. This is basically what happened in both Iraq and Afghanistan where the insurgents ultimately turned on their masters.

    On top of all that, Israel is now invading Syria in a big way, and they’re unlikely to withdraw. It’s only a matter of time till they start getting attacked, and this will force the west to keep pouring resources to prop them up. In effect, this flips the script on Syria. Instead of Russia and Iran being on the hook propping it up while the west can keep destabilizing it relatively cheaply. It is now the west that’s stuck with a very volatile situation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVMfckVQ7Hg

      • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.ml
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        14 hours ago

        It is, but Russia is already at war and Iran is likely to be attacked next. Committing to a war in Syria could have disastrous consequences for both.

    • freagle@lemmygrad.ml
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      2 days ago

      This would be in line with the general strategic analysis of how to defeat empires. I hope it’s the case

    • Pathfinder@lemmygrad.ml
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      3 days ago

      I think this is a reasonable take. And while I’m not going to pretend like this situation doesn’t present a problem for the Iran-Hezbollah supply line, I think that a fractured Syria probably means those supply lines can still be maintained. The Zionist entity will probably try and control as much of the Syria/Lebanon border as possible, but I think that will only serve to align more domestic Syrian forces against them.

  • DankZedong @lemmygrad.ml
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    4 days ago

    My country’s news is reporting about a prison that’s being caputred at which the prisoners are being released. Makes me thing about the (I think) Czech president who released prisoners from a gulag only to find out they were filled with, you know, a lot of criminals lol.

  • knfrmity@lemmygrad.ml
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    4 days ago

    German media is already talking about how this hopefully means that they can safely send Syrian refugees back.

    A year ago everyone pretended to be extremely mad at how the AfD wanted to send people with migrant heritage back to where they came from but since then we’ve gone back to the standard racist programing.

    • ksdhf@lemmygrad.ml
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      4 days ago

      shocked pickachu face when this crisis results in even more refugees into Turkey and Europe.

      • sinovictorchan@lemmygrad.ml
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        3 days ago

        The number of refugees coming into Europe is a good indicator to know whether the overthrow of Bashar’s government cause more lawlessness.

        • USSR Enjoyer@lemmygrad.ml
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          2 days ago

          Even in the best-case scenario where this was a tactical trap for Isn’treal, the plundering and destruction of the Syrian government is only going to make conditions worse for everyone there. It’s really sad.

  • ☭CommieWolf☆@lemmygrad.ml
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    4 days ago

    To anyone living in Germany, Turkey etc. where there are a lot of Syrian refugees, is there a strong sense of Gusano syndrome among them? Are many of them preparing to return to Syria?

    • AmarkuntheGatherer@lemmygrad.ml
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      3 days ago

      I haven’t heard about anyone intending to return, not that I specifically asked. There has been a disgusting amount of cheering though. Crowds celebrating, convoys honking, literal fireworks. I first thought it was weirdos celebrating new years early, turned out to be worms instead.

    • Ahri Boy 🏳️‍⚧️@lemmygrad.ml
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      3 days ago

      Civil War might be extended indefinitely. It’s only two factions remaining, Rojava and the new government. As of now, Syria is already in ruins, and the UNESCO World Heritage Sites might be destroyed by the new government.

  • Magos_Galactose@lemmygrad.ml
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    4 days ago

    I never expected the Syrian army to fall this quickly, but it didn’t look good in the first place.

    Back when they were fighting back, the bull of the fighting force that didn’t come from Iran were formerly pretty active paramilitary groups that were incorporated into the Syrian army. After these fighter served full term in the army and got discharged, they joined up with other paramilitary or mercenaries groups, such as Hezbollah or Wagner group.

    Now that practically every experience fighters on Assad’s side are busy elsewhere, the entire forces on Assad’s side are pretty much underequipped conscripted troops that have neither the skill, experiences, equipments, nor the morale close to what the previous generation of fighters processes. Now add the fact the rebel groups are unsubtly support by the Yank et.al., and…well, you can do the rest of the math yourself.

  • DankZedong @lemmygrad.ml
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    5 days ago

    I have pinned the post to prevent a wave of similar posts.

    It is a sad day for the resistance in the Middle East. A US proxy has won yet again and their terrorist groups will destroy another country.

  • OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml
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    4 days ago

    A bleak day. This is two major Hamas allies taken out of the fight in less than a month. It’s likely that Hamas will be looking for a ceasefire soon, especially if more blows like this happen.

    • USSR Enjoyer@lemmygrad.ml
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      2 days ago

      Hamas has been looking for a ceasefire for a while, just the permanent and enforceable kind which Isn’treal does not want.

        • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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          4 days ago

          They did put up a fight. They’ve been depleted over a 10+ year long civil war. War fatigue set in long ago, and supplies and fresh recruits started drying up a long long time ago.

    • lorty@lemmygrad.ml
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      4 days ago

      Although the terrorists had a lot of help, the way the Syrian army crumbled is very suspicious. Or maybe they just were unprepared.