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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
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This is shaping up to be a hell of a decade. I wonder if the capital flight from Europe serves multiple purposes. The obvious purpose is to prop up the American economy, but I wonder if it’s also to create the material conditions in Europe for reactionary movements to gain momentum and for the easiest profits to be tied to arms manufacture and war. Obviously if Western Europeans had to go to war that would be problematic, but it seems like Poland might be getting developed as the new North Atlantic proxy in Europe, which would allow for reactionary movements to grow without much resistance from the masses, and racism can be used to keep emotional distance between Western Europeans and the people who are actually fighting and dying.
If that’s the game they’re playing it’s obviously a very dangerous one as it’s likely that NATO and EU schemes will start to unravel as European economies collapse. There are a lot of latent antagonisms in Europe such as those between Poland and Germany, and as the pie starts shrinking we’ll see tensions and recriminations escalate. We’re already seeing right wing nationalist movements starting to gain popularity in many European countries, and these are incompatible with Altanticism.
Another aspect is that Europe is no longer the primary concern for US because US sees China as their main competitor. I expect that US will simply leave Europe hanging because they’re going to be forced to allocate resources towards Asia.
these are incompatible with Altanticism
I don’t think this is a problem. I think we would just end up with neo-atlanticism, which would be characterized not by a shared ideology so much as by total dominance of Europe by the US which would be made possible by the divide-and-conquer structure of various intra-European antagonisms. With Russia on the threshold, the material and ideological conditions for these antagonisms to prevent cohesion except where necessary to prop up a proxy like Poland would, in my estimation, be quite ripe. The only real solution to this from the European perspective would be a form of intra-European collaboration for survival, but I don’t think this could manifest within the current structure.
Another aspect is that Europe is no longer the primary concern for US because US sees China as their main competitor
Europe isn’t a primary concern, it’s a continental proxy.
I expect that US will simply leave Europe hanging because they’re going to be forced to allocate resources towards Asia.
They need Europeans to die in the war. The US cannot fight China with its own bodies.
I expect that things are going to be pretty grim for Europe all around. I completely agree that it’s going to be nearly impossible for Europeans to come together around shared interests in a rapidly deteriorating economic environment. And given that individual countries are going to be weak on their own that will open the door for political manipulation by both US and Russia.
I don’t really see how US can get Europeans to fight China realistically. Europe is going to have their hands full trying not to collapse for the foreseeable future. It’s more realistic to expect that US will try to rally Australia, Japan, and India. Although, I can’t really see India going along with that in practice. India is happy to play China and US off each other, but there’s very little chance it would actually fight for US.
