This is given that he scored so many. What about if you chose the poisson parameter based on all first choice strikers or something

Lovely work.

Doesn’t this have to be followed with ‘given the amount of goals he scored’?

This shows that avoiding a 6-game goal drought over 12 season while scoring over 300 goals is notable but not extraordinary.

I think that misses the point. The point is that a player never having a 6-game drought over 12 seasons is incredibly rare.

I don’t understand, if you didn’t data scrapped real perfomances this analysis doesn’t tell much.

Was your simulation based on playing 90 minutes per game?