• lazynooblet
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    5 days ago

    I don’t get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%

    • zxqwas@lemmy.world
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      5 days ago

      If you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.

      You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.

      Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.

      Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.