Like an estimated two-thirds of the worldā€™s population, I donā€™t digest lactose well, which makes the occasional latte an especially pricey proposition. So it was a pleasant surprise when, shortly after moving to San Francisco, I ordered a drink at Blue Bottle Coffee and didnā€™t have to askā€”or pay extraā€”for a milk alternative. Since 2022, the once Oakland-based, now NestlĆ©-owned cafe chain has defaulted to oat milk, both to cut carbon emissions and because lots of its affluent-tending customers were already choosing it as their go-to.

Plant-based milks, a multibillion-dollar global market, arenā€™t just good for the lactose intolerant: Theyā€™re also better for the climate. Dairy cows belch a lot of methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide; they contribute at least 7 percent of US methane output, the equivalent emissions of 10 million cars. Cattle need a lot of room to graze, too: Plant-based milks use about a tenth as much land to produce the same quantity of milk. And it takes almost a thousand gallons of water to manufacture a gallon of dairy milkā€”four times the water cost of alt-milk from oats or soy.

But if climate concerns push us toward the alt-milk aisle, dairy still has price on its side. Even though plant-based milks are generally much less resource-intensive, theyā€™re often more expensive. Walk into any Starbucks, and youā€™ll likely pay around 70 cents extra for nondairy options.

. Dairyā€™s affordability edge, explains MarĆ­a Mascaraque, an analyst at market research firm Euromonitor International, relies on the industryā€™s ability to produce ā€œat larger volumes, which drives down the cost per carton.ā€ American demand for milk alternatives, though expected to grow by 10 percent a year through 2030, canā€™t beat those economies of scale. (Globally, alt-milks arenā€™t new on the sceneā€”coconut milk is even mentioned in the Sanskrit epic Mahābhārata, which is thousands of years old.)

What else contributes to cow milkā€™s dominance? Dairy farmers are ā€œpolitical favorites,ā€ says Daniel Sumner, a University of California, Davis, agricultural economist. In addition to support like the ā€œDairy Checkoff,ā€ a joint government-industry program to promote milk products (including the ā€œGot Milk?ā€ campaign), theyā€™ve long raked in direct subsidies currently worth around $1 billion a year.

Big Milk fights hard to maintain those benefits, spending more than $7 million a year on lobbying. That might help explain why the US Department of Agriculture has talked around the climate virtues of meat and dairy alternatives, refusing to factor sustainability into its dietary guidelinesā€”and why it has featured content, such as a 2013 article by thenā€“Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, trumpeting the dairy industry as ā€œleading the way in sustainable innovation.ā€

But the USDA doesnā€™t directly support plant-based milk. It does subsidize some alt-milk ingredientsā€”soybean producers, like dairy, net close to $1 billion a year on average, but that crop largely goes to feeding meat- and dairy-producing livestock and extracting oil. A 2021 report by industry analysts Mintec Limited and Frost Procurement Adventurer also notes that, while the inputs for dairy (such as cattle feed) for dairy are a little more expensive than typical plant-milk ingredients, plant alternatives face higher manufacturing costs. Alt-milk makers, Sumner says, may also have thinner profit margins: Their ā€œstrategy for growth is advertisement and promotion and publicity,ā€ which isnā€™t cheap.

Starbucks, though, does benefit from economies of scale. In Europe, the company is slowly dropping premiums for alt-milks, a move it attributes to wanting to lower corporate emissions. ā€œMarket-level conditions allow us to move more quicklyā€ than other companies, a spokesperson for the coffee giant told me, but didnā€™t say if or when the price drop would happen elsewhere.

In the United States, meanwhile, itā€™s a waiting game to see whether the government or corporations drive down alt-milk costs. Currently, Sumner says, plant-based milk producers operate under an assumption that ā€œprice isnā€™t the main thingā€ for their buyersā€”as long as enough privileged consumers will pay up, alt-milk can fill a premium niche. But itā€™s going to take a bigger market than that to make real progress in curbing emissions from food.

  • Sodis@feddit.de
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    2
    arrow-down
    1
    Ā·
    1 year ago

    Why? Because all the animal herders will still produce lots of meat at a loss and then just burn everything no one wants to eat?

    • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      1
      arrow-down
      1
      Ā·
      1 year ago

      i donā€™t believe the methodology used to calculate emissions from animal agriculture is appropriate: every examination iā€™ve done has attributed emissions to animals that are actually conservation, like feeding cattle cottonseed and then attributing the impacts of cotton grown for textiles to cattle.

      • Sodis@feddit.de
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        3
        Ā·
        1 year ago

        But then you doubt the number and not the general effect of reducing carbon emissions by switching to a plant-based diet, right? Because it is pretty obvious, that growing plants and then feeding those plants to animals is way more inefficient than eating the plants without extra steps.

        • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          arrow-down
          1
          Ā·
          1 year ago

          a lot of what is fed to animals are parts of plants that people canā€™t or wonā€™t eat. there may be some reduction but i donā€™t believe it can be anywhere near 70%

          • Sodis@feddit.de
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            Ā·
            1 year ago

            Do you have any sources on hand? Itā€™s hard to google for this stuff without running into sites by PETA etc, which are too biased for my taste.

            • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              2
              arrow-down
              1
              Ā·
              1 year ago

              i donā€™t know of any broad surveys across crop categories but iā€™m pretty familiar with soy

              https://ourworldindata.org/soy

              you can see that 17% of all soybeans becomes oil. but a soybean is only about 20% oil altogether. in order to extract that much oil, we must press about 85% of the global crop of soybeans. the vast majority if the soy fed to livestock is the industrial waste from that process. you can see in that chart itā€™s called ā€œsoy cakeā€ or ā€œsoy mealā€.

              elsewhere in this thread i mentioned cottonseed.

              • DarthFrodo@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                2
                Ā·
                1 year ago

                in order to extract that much oil, we must press about 85% of the global crop of soybeans. the vast majority if the soy fed to livestock is the industrial waste from that process.

                Iā€™ve already told you that we can produce plant-based meat or soy protein for other uses from that, which you conceded, and you still call it ā€œindustrial wasteā€. Why are you knowingly spreading misinformation?

                • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  1
                  Ā·
                  1 year ago

                  not only can we do that: we DO that. but there frankly isnā€™t enough human use for that, so it would be wasted if we didnā€™t feed it to animals.

                  • DarthFrodo@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    2
                    Ā·
                    edit-2
                    1 year ago

                    If the rest of the plant would be wasted, it would be more economical to just grow another plant thatā€™s more efficient for oil production (canola, sunflower), not soybeans which are incidentally the crop highest in protein.

                    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/area-per-tonne-oil

                    Itā€™s not grown in such quantities because itā€™s essential but simply because thereā€™s demand for the extra protein from factory farms right now.

                • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  arrow-down
                  2
                  Ā·
                  1 year ago

                  Why are you knowingly spreading misinformation?

                  i am doing no such thing. iā€™m simply pointing out your lies.

              • Sodis@feddit.de
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                2
                Ā·
                1 year ago

                But then humans can also eat that soy meal to get their proteins. Itā€™s pretty tasty, I eat it regularly.

                • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  1
                  Ā·
                  1 year ago

                  people do eat soy meal but they eat very little of the amount produced. if the vast majority of it werenā€™t fed to livestock it would just be waste.

                  • Sodis@feddit.de
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    2
                    Ā·
                    1 year ago

                    We are talking about a switch to a predominantly vegan diet. People need to get the protein they got from meat from somewhere else.