The Israeli military said it was carrying out a raid on Wednesday against Palestinian Hamas militants in Al Shifa Hospital, the Gaza Strip's biggest hospital, and urged them all to surrender.
Even IF there is a command center under the hospital this is the wrong way to address this issue
Given the US’s comments in the past 12 hours it looks like this is intended to be an attempt at a hostage rescue. We’ll see how it plays out, but it’s quite unusual that you have both US intelligence publicly agreeing with the claim that hospital is being used not only operationally but for holding hostages, and then just a few hours ago Biden has a message for the hostages’ families of “we’re coming.”
Its worth reading/watching into past high profile hostage situations. I have a few yellow flag concerns, but The Operations Room youtube channel is really good for this
The reality is: Once you get away from the movies, hostages die. It is about minimizing loss of life, not preventing it. And the US in particular has taken a very strong “we don’t negotiate with terrorists… unless they are wihite” since the republicans sabotaged Carter.
So acknowledging that an ally will be doing an assault and that intelligence feels it would accomplish something is pretty normal.
Calling the shot? That is fairly atypical, but there is also no chance of stealth in this situation. Al Shifa is deep in Gaza and Hamas have sentries. This is WHY “we don’t negotiate with terrorists” because bum rushing is really the only chance.
At which point, the optics of “We are going to rescue those hostages” in the face of “We are going to lob large bombs at any terrorist we can find, no matter how many babies they duct tape to their chest” is a choice.
I’ve generally assumed that the majority of the hostages taken on the initial attack are now dead and have been for some time. The offer of “70 hostages” by Hamas suggested to me that 150+ were already dead.
We’ll see how the operation plays out.
Part of my surprise at the US statements is the high potential for the whole thing going to shit and catching the blowback. The Hamas spin team have already managed to get several headlines of “Hamas blames Biden/the US for what’s happening at Al Shifa” because of those comments.
If there wasn’t some kind of strategic win on the table that the US administration was attempting to connect itself to for credit after the fact, opening itself up to the potentially large political loss if the operation goes south seems plain stupid.
So my guess is still that there’s a real goal of a politically beneficial outcome for the US at the end of the operation such that it motivated preemptive involvement.
Edit: As for “calling the shot” - that’s literally part of the international law. For going into the hospital that’s being used for military ops by an enemy not to be a war crime IDF needed to provide advance notice of an operation, give Hamas the opportunity to cease activities, show demonstrable proof it was continuing, and then go in while taking every effort to minimize civilian casualties.
I think the problem is just how effective the Hamas/(allegedly)Iran spin team has been.
Al Jazeera have been going REALLY hard on reminding people they are state funded media. Hard to tell because we are in a post truth society, but it also looks like they are actively cutting off people who attest to their being Hamas terrorists in said hospitals (which would be true even if it weren’t a base since they are likely wounded). Just look at how fast the entire world decided Israel bombed that hospital a few weeks back (… as opposed to the hospitals they HAVE bombed before and after).
So push the narrative that the IDF care about the hostages and are trying to rescue them. Use allies to accomplish that. If it fails, it fails. It is no different than if they did nothing. But if even a few hostages are rescued (and have sob stories of their treatment by Hamas) then it is a major win.
At this point, the only political win for the US is to not put boots on the ground in yet another Middle Eastern country that has been destabilized.
Given the US’s comments in the past 12 hours it looks like this is intended to be an attempt at a hostage rescue. We’ll see how it plays out, but it’s quite unusual that you have both US intelligence publicly agreeing with the claim that hospital is being used not only operationally but for holding hostages, and then just a few hours ago Biden has a message for the hostages’ families of “we’re coming.”
Its worth reading/watching into past high profile hostage situations. I have a few yellow flag concerns, but The Operations Room youtube channel is really good for this
The reality is: Once you get away from the movies, hostages die. It is about minimizing loss of life, not preventing it. And the US in particular has taken a very strong “we don’t negotiate with terrorists… unless they are wihite” since the republicans sabotaged Carter.
So acknowledging that an ally will be doing an assault and that intelligence feels it would accomplish something is pretty normal.
Calling the shot? That is fairly atypical, but there is also no chance of stealth in this situation. Al Shifa is deep in Gaza and Hamas have sentries. This is WHY “we don’t negotiate with terrorists” because bum rushing is really the only chance.
At which point, the optics of “We are going to rescue those hostages” in the face of “We are going to lob large bombs at any terrorist we can find, no matter how many babies they duct tape to their chest” is a choice.
I’ve generally assumed that the majority of the hostages taken on the initial attack are now dead and have been for some time. The offer of “70 hostages” by Hamas suggested to me that 150+ were already dead.
We’ll see how the operation plays out.
Part of my surprise at the US statements is the high potential for the whole thing going to shit and catching the blowback. The Hamas spin team have already managed to get several headlines of “Hamas blames Biden/the US for what’s happening at Al Shifa” because of those comments.
If there wasn’t some kind of strategic win on the table that the US administration was attempting to connect itself to for credit after the fact, opening itself up to the potentially large political loss if the operation goes south seems plain stupid.
So my guess is still that there’s a real goal of a politically beneficial outcome for the US at the end of the operation such that it motivated preemptive involvement.
Edit: As for “calling the shot” - that’s literally part of the international law. For going into the hospital that’s being used for military ops by an enemy not to be a war crime IDF needed to provide advance notice of an operation, give Hamas the opportunity to cease activities, show demonstrable proof it was continuing, and then go in while taking every effort to minimize civilian casualties.
I think the problem is just how effective the Hamas/(allegedly)Iran spin team has been.
Al Jazeera have been going REALLY hard on reminding people they are state funded media. Hard to tell because we are in a post truth society, but it also looks like they are actively cutting off people who attest to their being Hamas terrorists in said hospitals (which would be true even if it weren’t a base since they are likely wounded). Just look at how fast the entire world decided Israel bombed that hospital a few weeks back (… as opposed to the hospitals they HAVE bombed before and after).
So push the narrative that the IDF care about the hostages and are trying to rescue them. Use allies to accomplish that. If it fails, it fails. It is no different than if they did nothing. But if even a few hostages are rescued (and have sob stories of their treatment by Hamas) then it is a major win.
At this point, the only political win for the US is to not put boots on the ground in yet another Middle Eastern country that has been destabilized.