North Korea on Monday tested an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach anywhere in the U.S., according to government officials in Japan and South Korea. South Korean government officials…
On the one hand, I don’t know if I believe it because it’s coming from Japan and SK. On the other hand, I want to believe it because that’s great for NK if it works.
Now comes the important part though which is producing these weapons in sufficient quantities to actually establish real deterrence. Because as we have seen in Ukraine it is not enough to simply have a few weapon systems that can theoretically hit their target, what matters most at the end of the day is still quantity. In low numbers almost any weapon can be countered by defensive systems.
In order to really deter aggression you need enough warheads and enough delivery platforms that they will overwhelm any missile defense and guarantee that enough of them will get through to cause more damage than the enemy is prepared to accept for the sake of attacking you. In a sense this is also a political equation because it depends on what price the other side is willing to pay for your defeat.
On the one hand, I don’t know if I believe it because it’s coming from Japan and SK. On the other hand, I want to believe it because that’s great for NK if it works.
If they can launch a satellite then they definitely have a delivery platform that can hit anywhere in the world now.
Now comes the important part though which is producing these weapons in sufficient quantities to actually establish real deterrence. Because as we have seen in Ukraine it is not enough to simply have a few weapon systems that can theoretically hit their target, what matters most at the end of the day is still quantity. In low numbers almost any weapon can be countered by defensive systems.
In order to really deter aggression you need enough warheads and enough delivery platforms that they will overwhelm any missile defense and guarantee that enough of them will get through to cause more damage than the enemy is prepared to accept for the sake of attacking you. In a sense this is also a political equation because it depends on what price the other side is willing to pay for your defeat.
Right, that’s been the subtext of space races since the start. Tom Lehrer - Wernher von Braun