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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • Moreover, that’s not how probability works in independent events.

    It’d be like saying “I flipped coin A 1 billion times and got half a billion heads, so now that I’m flipping coin B 100 times, I probably won’t get any more heads.”

    It should be fairly obvious that you can say the exact same statement about tails, and get a completely contradictory statement.


  • Yeah, I was trying to compute the “ballpark” of the odds, but it’s actually hard to do because of how astronomically improbable it is. Even computation systems that are designed to compute rather big/small numbers (think 100,000,000^1,000,000 big) fail.

    Here’s another example: If a human only had 1,000 gut microbes, the chance that over 900 of them get snapped is 1 in ~10^162 [WA]. (This was roughly the biggest number I could get WA to yield a non-zero answer for a >90% snap.)

    Now if you do that for every human on earth, the probability is still essentially zero. [WA]

    When you consider that humans don’t have 1000 gut microbes, they have over 10 trillion, it’s just mind bogglingly improbable.







  • It’s not for everyone, but if it’s for you, it’s amazing.

    I’d highly recommend beating the base game first if you haven’t already. The complexity really ramps up quite a bit, so if you struggle with the base game, it might be better to hold off. That said, if you’re confident in your problem solving skills and willing to push through some of the tougher bits, you could totally jump right in to Space Age.

    I think I’m at around 100 hrs in to SA so far, and maybe (optimistically) half way through, and I’ve loved every bit. Except Gleba, fuck Gleba. :)








  • I think what’s incredibility obvious to you and I is an area of willful and encouraged ignorance for some who benefit from the results of their ignorance. I think that the media is largely complicit is beyond distasteful, but it’s also the reality we live in.

    I also think it’s important for wikipedia to work through their own NPOV policies. It should be applauded that they eventually arrived at the correct conclusion, AND moreso that they spent time considering and discarding contrary positions.

    Accepting one particular viewpoint with no consideration is dogmatism, and is not helpful to progressive causes.