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Cake day: September 17th, 2024

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  • Alleged agent of Hezbollah receives the pager. Alleged agent places it on a table at home.

    Anybody with access to secure coms knows that they’re not permitted to allow others to access the device, including family members. So your situation is inherently implausible and ultimately comes down to the agent themselves not following the rules, with devastating consequences to their family.

    There’s an plethora of situations that could occur

    But they didn’t occur. So they couldn’t have occurred.

    that’s if we take it at face value that Mossad can identify who is and isn’t a Hezbollah agent.

    No, we just have to take it at face value that Hezbollah can identify who is and isn’t a Hezbollah agent. So that they give them a secure pager. Why wouldn’t that be the case?






  • My point is they had a vested interest in the scapegoat excuse. The market is a mild embarassment compared to a possible containment breach.

    Ok, and I asked you why that matters. And you haven’t said.

    Also if for example a CDC or USAMRIID site was ‘only’ 8 km away from an outbreak of a disease they were studying, it would trigger a full on investigation and full genetic comparison.

    Well, but no, it doesn’t. For instance the CDC’s Enteric Diseases lab is in Atlanta, Georgia; it hosts the largest tissue collection of foodborne disease isolates in the world. If you were ever hospitalized for listeriosis in the United States, a sample of your disease isolate is probably located in a freezer there.

    And also people periodically get food poisoning from Atlanta restaurants. About 12 a year, let’s say.

    So every one of those food poisoning cases happens within 8 km of the largest food poisoning lab in the United States. Do you know how often they investigate whether the isolate leaked from the CDC lab?

    Literally never. Not ever. Because there’s no reason to, because people getting a disease near where the disease is studied is not statistically significant in any way.


  • It’s indiscriminate because Israel doesn’t know who is in proximity of the device when it explodes

    But they do know. They know that it’s an agent of Hezbollah, or else they would not have been issued a pager by Hezbollah.

    It’s no stretch to think one of the targets could have been frisking a journalist or aid worker when their device detonated.

    Ok, but that didn’t happen, so clearly it is a stretch. You’re asserting that Mossad achieved better than 99% target accuracy by accident, but the fact that it’s better than 99% proves it was no accident at all. It was a deliberate and discriminate attack on a terror network responsible for more than 8000 indiscriminate attacks on Israel in this year alone.







  • Honestly, the real question to me is how many innocent people were maimed, injured, or killed in this attack.

    Quite a bit fewer than 0.1% of the individual detonations appear to have harmed anyone except the Hezbollah operative assigned to the pager, so this doesn’t actually appear to be a question. The attack was extremely discriminate and targeted.

    but if they’re in a cafe they’re not the only ones getting hurt.

    In every case in which one of these went off in a cafe, the intended target was the only one hurt.

    That’s the true crime, the potentially disproportionate massacre of innocent civilians.

    But that isn’t what happened. The opposite happened.



  • Equally embarrassing? Doubtful.

    Why does it have to be equally embarrassing? It just has to be embarrassing enough that they’d take steps to conceal it. Which they did. It doesn’t have to be the most embarrassing situation, just one of the ones that would spur them to act.

    One is a market which can be blamed on illegal activity even after being shut down and ‘little’ people arrested.

    But they did shut it down and they did arrest people and they even seized and incinerated every animal at the market without taking samples or even identifying and logging the species.

    On the other hand they didn’t shut down WIV, or really do anything to it at all.

    but the lab’s proximity to the outbreak is incredibly suspect.

    It’s 8km away, across a river.