President Bidenās reelection campaign announced Monday that it will aim to flip Florida, targeting the home of former President Trump.
Campaign managerĀ Julie Chavez RodriguezĀ said in a memo that investing in Florida is part of the Biden campaignās pathway to 270 electoral votes. Trump won the Sunshine State in 2020 with more than 51 percent, compared to Bidenās 48 percent.
āMake no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trumpās weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,ā she said.
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The Biden campaign has also set its sightsĀ on flipping North CarolinaĀ in November. Trump won North Carolina by a tight margin in 2020, and Biden visited the state as part of his tour of every battleground state last month.
Honestly, maybe this is pure hubris here, but I think Biden is in for a big win in November. They have so much fucking money on hand they can blow it in Florida to troll Trump and Desantis. I think roughly 10-20% of the Republican party is, because of Jan 6, never Trump voters. We see Haley getting about that much support in these late primaries, even after she dropped out. We havenāt had an election with Trump on the ballot since Jan 6 I think this is the sole reason he wonāt win. Moderates fucking hate him over Jan 6. So we have completely disengaged moderate conservatives, big donors are walking away because they donāt want to pay Trumps legal bills. State GOPs are bankrupt. And to top it all off, Trump is going to be in court all summer over __________ crimes
Meanwhile Biden has strong issues to campaign on: Abortion and threats to American democracy. We still havenāt managed to hit a recession yet, even tho its been predicted for the last 3 years. Things are improving, albeit slowly. Also what nobody in the mainstream is considering: Polling is completely broken. Pew research did a poll and found that 12% of respondents were capable of operating a Nuclear Sub (the reality is less than 1%). Online polls pay per poll, people are very clearly just answering question as quickly as possible to get the pay outs.
I wish I had this amount of confidence in my fellow man. I fear this election is going to be just as close as the last two and it will be a coin flip in the end.
Yes, it IS pure hubris. He won most mutual states by a smaller margin than Hilary and heās currently behind in at least one of the swing states that cost her the election.
If he doesnāt get his act together and stops turning droves away from voting at all, heās going to lose.
Just because I know some will trot out this strawman: no, I donāt WANT him to lose. Heās by far the lesser evil and if he loses to the mango Mussolini, there might not be another election.
Donāt forget that the republican party has shrunk just in raw numbers. Covid deaths and people switching parties after jan 6 means even if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2024 itād be a smaller number than if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2020.
The irony of killing off their own base by not taking covid seriously to own the libs.
If Democrats try just a little, I think youāre right, and we could be seeing the complete collapse of the Republican party because of it. When special elections are flipping R+15 districts, and the reaction against the Dobbs decision has been so strong and sustained, then thereās a message that will work in every district. Meanwhile, Republican fundraising has already dried up, and what funds they do have are going into Trumpās mounting legal bills. The party has the wind knocked out of it, and if Dems would just fucking try rather than give them a moment to catch their breath, it would be a curbstomp.
But they need to fucking try.
It already cost Biden over a billion dollars in 2020 to win the electoral by a very small marginā¦
Weirdly topical, but Iām assuming they meant Naval Nuclear Engineersā¦
The ASVAB is typical standardized test where the best score is 99%. Weighted for when the test is taken.
So if only 1% could be a nuke, that would be assuming 100% of people take the test and the Navy only takes 99.
Now, I got a 99, and got into the program. But there was people in the high 70s as well. People could retake the test as many times as they want. And there is/was even a supplemental test people could take if their main ASVAB wasnāt quite high enough.
So yeah, 12% of poll responders being able to do the toughest job of a nuclear sub doesnāt sound rightā¦
Itās really much higher than that.
You didnāt click the link did you?
The poll was about who is ālicensedā not just āsmart enough.ā
The on hyperlinked in the previous sentence that just says āpolls are brokenā?
No, I donāt click on most links that donāt say where theyāre going and sounc conspiracial. Iām on a phone and canāt āhoverā to see.
I just did tho:
So, OP read one thing, and then said another.
But thatās about something factual, not an opinion like āwho are you going to vote forā.
And it is specifically about online opt in pollsā¦
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/05/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce-misleading-results-especially-for-young-people-and-hispanic-adults/
Which is probably why OP decided to hide the link. You donāt even need to read the title to realize why itās not relevant. The link says it plain as day.
But man, Iāve been overestimating people recently.
If you truly donāt understand why āonline opt in pollsā are the worst kind of polling I can take the time to explain it. But itās basically like saying trump is selling shitty shoes so youāve decided to go barefoot the rest of your life.
YouGov, SurveyMonkey, The Harris Poll, Morning Consult and Lucid are all online opt-in polls. Those polls, and others like them, are the ones that everyone uses to show that Trump is ahead of Biden.
The rest are generally random-digit dialing phone polls. Guess what: those are even worse.
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Formating a hyperlink so itās embedded in text is more work than just putting the linkā¦
But the multitasking does explain why you didnāt notice it was an online opt in poll.
That was my issues. Your statistics, not your ājournalismā while shitting.