• zxqwas@lemmy.world
    64·
    7 days ago

    If 1 in 20 conspiracy theories are correct then you’ll be 95% correct if you disbelieve all of them.

    If you pick one to believe in you’ll be about 90% correct on average.

    If you pick 10 you’ll be about 50% correct.

    • lazynoobletEnglish
      101·
      7 days ago

      I don’t get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%

      • zxqwas@lemmy.world
        3·
        7 days ago

        If you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.

        You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.

        Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.

        Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.